The Map and the Territory ― Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting

「或許很多人認為，葛林斯潘的成名之路不符常規，但讀過這本書之後，你會了解為何有多達五位美國總統都曾請求他的協助，使他成為這個時代最偉大的經濟政策制訂者之一。」
──葛雷葛利‧麥基（N. Gregory Mankiw），哈佛大學經濟系教授

《紐約時報》、《華爾街日報》、《金融時報》、《富比士》雜誌好評推薦

預測機制失靈，表示我們對人性不夠了解。
經濟未來的重要議題，本書有宏觀討論。

2008年的金融危機，讓葛林斯潘和每個人──儘管只有少數人的能見度像他那麼高──不得不對風險管理與經濟預測的某些根本假設產生懷疑，因為放眼世界各地，沒有任何一個經濟決策圈要角事先預見這場風暴。到底為什麼我們的預測模型，會讓我們這麼一敗塗地？

 為了解答這個疑問，葛林斯潘在幾年前，展開了嚴謹且廣泛的研究。他檢視經濟人（Homo economicus）如何預測未來的經濟情勢，並探究要如何預測得更精準。從家庭、企業到各級政府，不管在任何領域，經濟風險都是無可避免的。無論是否體察到，我們每天幾乎都會以某種方式對未來下注。然而，在下注的同時，我們卻經常被過時的認知誤導，否則就是隨著人類知覺所無法控制的要素起舞。

本書的目的，就是企盼更新我們的預測概念網。它融合了經濟預測史、行為經濟學家的新研究成果，和作者本身豐富、顯赫的職涯閱歷，提供一個清晰到令人震撼且具實證根據的基礎，讓人更加了解我們過去對經濟預測的認識還有無知。本書也探討文化是否注定無法改變，並探究我們可以從福利國的債務與改革，以及全球暖化時代的天然災害中，預測這個世界即將面臨哪些最大的潛在挑戰。

 當然，任何內心的認知地圖，永遠都不可能和現實版圖完全吻合。但葛林斯潘提出的方法，是以他特有的嚴謹、智慧與空前分明的脈絡為基礎，所以這份獨特的認知地圖，絕對有助於個人、企業乃至國家，透過很多不同的道路，安全地度過未來的旅程。
---本書中文版《世界經濟的未來版圖》由大塊文化出版

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?

To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.

The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't. The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to our competition with China to natural disasters in an age of global warming.

No map is the territory, but Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.

Alan Greenspan was born in 1926 and reared in the Washington Heights neighborhood of New York City. After studying the clarinet at Juilliard and working as a professional musician, he earned his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. in economics from New York University. In 1954, he cofounded the economic consulting firm Townsend-Greenspan & Co. From 1974 to 1977, he served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Gerald Ford. In 1987, President Ronald Reagan appointed him chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a position he held until his retirement in 2006. He is the author of the number one New York Times bestseller The Age of Turbulence.