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有個現象愈來愈顯著，那就是數字決定世界的面貌：從退休年齡到Facebook點擊次數，從國內生產總值到我們的收入。但有沒有可能，你愈相信數字，就離真相愈遠？在現代社會，我們的日常生活早已離不開數字，這並非誇大。例如，我們靠降雨機率思索今天該穿哪雙鞋、靠體重計決定晚上的聚餐該不該參加、靠考試分數衡量自己的表現。數字也告訴我們什麼樣的身體條件才是健康、怎樣的生活水準才叫富足、要得到什麼結果才叫第一，甚至判讀幾個月後是否在世。因為相信「數字會說話」，所以愈來愈多的決策依賴數據。企業用數字衡量員工是否努力、政府用數字證明不辜負人民期待、媒體用數字告訴我們誰可能贏得選舉，以及經濟是否成長。由於數字能形塑他人對自己的觀感、左右我們的情緒，於是政客、企業和媒體，開始試圖操弄人們所做的每一個決定，更讓有心人士拿來成為製造懷疑與恐懼的最佳利器──．性學家金賽用偏頗數據定義了男女的性傾向．菸草工業夥同科學家，用似是而非的數據混淆吸菸對致癌的影響．智商高低分數，拿來成為美國政府推行種族絕育法案的理由數字、分數、排名、民意測驗和大數據，在每個人的生活中變得愈來愈重要。然而就像美國諺語：「槍不會殺人，但拿槍的人會。」一樣，數字不會撒謊，但使用數字的人會。在這假新聞充斥、製造真相的時代，即使你對數字無感，數字依然深刻影響你的人生。數字讓人自以為擁有獨立思考，但其實，我們比想像中更容易掉進用理性科學編織而成的思維陷阱。在本書中，經濟學家桑妮．布勞結合數學、經濟學和歷史，用通俗又簡潔的說故事風格（而非數據），帶領大家開啟一段關於數字偏見的探索旅程，並試圖揭示如果對誇大又別有居心的數據照單全收，我們將會陷入何種危險境地。

Despite its seemingly deterministic nature, the study of whole numbers, especially prime numbers, has many interactions with probability theory, the theory of random processes and events. This surprising connection was first discovered around 1920, but in recent years the links have become much deeper and better understood. Aimed at beginning graduate students, this textbook is the first to explain some of the most modern parts of the story. Such topics include the Chebychev bias, universality of the Riemann zeta function, exponential sums and the bewitching shapes known as Kloosterman paths. Emphasis is given throughout to probabilistic ideas in the arguments, not just the final statements, and the focus is on key examples over technicalities. The book develops probabilistic number theory from scratch, with short appendices summarizing the most important background results from number theory, analysis and probability, making it a readable and incisive introduction to this beautiful ar

Proposes a new theory of Senate agenda setting that reconciles a divide in literature between the conventional wisdom – in which party power is thought to be mostly undermined by Senate procedures and norms – and the apparent partisan bias in Senate decisions noted in recent empirical studies. Chris Den Hartog and Nathan W. Monroe's theory revolves around a 'costly consideration' framework for thinking about agenda setting, where moving proposals forward through the legislative process is seen as requiring scarce resources. To establish that the majority party pays lower agenda consideration costs through various procedural advantages, the book features a number of chapters examining partisan influence at several stages of the legislative process, including committee reports, filibusters and cloture, floor scheduling and floor amendments. Not only do the results support the book's theoretical assumption and key hypotheses, but they shed new light on virtually every major step in the Se

In this book, which was originally published in 2005, Amanda Lillie challenges the urban bias in Renaissance art and architectural history by investigating the architecture and patronage strategies, particularly those of the Strozzi and the Sassetti clans, in the Florentine countryside during the fifteenth century. Based entirely on archival material that remained unpublished at the time of publication, her book examines a number of villas from this period and reconstructs the value systems that emerge from these sources, which defy the traditional, idealized interpretation of the 'renaissance villa'. Here, the house is studied in relation to the families who lived in them and to the land that surrounded them. The villa emerges as a functional, utilitarian farming unit upon whose success families depended, and where dynastic and patrimonial values could be nurtured.

This substantial volume has two principal objectives. First it provides an overview of the statistical foundations of Simulation-based inference. This includes the summary and synthesis of the many concepts and results extant in the theoretical literature, the different classes of problems and estimators, the asymptotic properties of these estimators, as well as descriptions of the different simulators in use. Second, the volume provides empirical and operational examples of SBI methods. Often what is missing, even in existing applied papers, are operational issues. Which simulator works best for which problem and why? This volume will explicitly address the important numerical and computational issues in SBI which are not covered comprehensively in the existing literature. Examples of such issues are: comparisons with existing tractable methods, number of replications needed for robust results, choice of instruments, simulation noise and bias as well as efficiency loss in practice.

The number one New York Times bestselling author of Bias delivers another bombshell—this time aimed at . . . 100 People Who Are Screwing Up America No preaching. No pontificating. Just some uncommon s

Race and Policing in America is about relations between police and citizens, with a focus on racial differences. It utilizes both the authors' own research and other studies to examine Americans' opinions, preferences, and personal experiences regarding the police. Guided by group-position theory and using both existing studies and the authors' own quantitative and qualitative data (from a nationally representative survey of whites, blacks, and Hispanics), this book examines the roles of personal experience, knowledge of others' experiences (vicarious experience), mass media reporting on the police, and neighborhood conditions (including crime and socioeconomic disadvantage) in structuring citizen views in four major areas: overall satisfaction with police in one's city and neighborhood, perceptions of several types of police misconduct, perceptions of police racial bias and discrimination, and evaluations of and support for a large number of reforms in policing.

Anyone writing texts in English is constantly faced with the unavoidable question whether to use open spelling (drinking fountain), hyphenation (far-off) or solid spelling (airport) for individual compounds. While some compounds commonly occur with alternative spellings, others show a very clear bias for one form. This book tests over 60 hypotheses and explores the patterns underlying the spelling of English compounds from a variety of perspectives. Based on a sample of 600 biconstituent compounds with identical spelling in all reference works in which they occur (200 each with open, hyphenated and solid spelling), this empirical study analyses large amounts of data from corpora and dictionaries and concludes that the spelling of English compounds is not chaotic but actually correlates with a large number of statistically significant variables. An easily applicable decision tree is derived from the data and an innovative multi-dimensional prototype model is suggested to account for the

Anyone writing texts in English is constantly faced with the unavoidable question whether to use open spelling (drinking fountain), hyphenation (far-off) or solid spelling (airport) for individual compounds. While some compounds commonly occur with alternative spellings, others show a very clear bias for one form. This book tests over 60 hypotheses and explores the patterns underlying the spelling of English compounds from a variety of perspectives. Based on a sample of 600 biconstituent compounds with identical spelling in all reference works in which they occur (200 each with open, hyphenated and solid spelling), this empirical study analyses large amounts of data from corpora and dictionaries and concludes that the spelling of English compounds is not chaotic but actually correlates with a large number of statistically significant variables. An easily applicable decision tree is derived from the data and an innovative multi-dimensional prototype model is suggested to account for the

Race and Policing in America is about relations between police and citizens, with a focus on racial differences. It utilizes both the authors' own research and other studies to examine Americans' opinions, preferences, and personal experiences regarding the police. Guided by group-position theory and using both existing studies and the authors' own quantitative and qualitative data (from a nationally representative survey of whites, blacks, and Hispanics), this book examines the roles of personal experience, knowledge of others' experiences (vicarious experience), mass media reporting on the police, and neighborhood conditions (including crime and socioeconomic disadvantage) in structuring citizen views in four major areas: overall satisfaction with police in one's city and neighborhood, perceptions of several types of police misconduct, perceptions of police racial bias and discrimination, and evaluations of and support for a large number of reforms in policing.

This substantial volume has two principal objectives. First it provides an overview of the statistical foundations of Simulation-based inference. This includes the summary and synthesis of the many concepts and results extant in the theoretical literature, the different classes of problems and estimators, the asymptotic properties of these estimators, as well as descriptions of the different simulators in use. Second, the volume provides empirical and operational examples of SBI methods. Often what is missing, even in existing applied papers, are operational issues. Which simulator works best for which problem and why? This volume will explicitly address the important numerical and computational issues in SBI which are not covered comprehensively in the existing literature. Examples of such issues are: comparisons with existing tractable methods, number of replications needed for robust results, choice of instruments, simulation noise and bias as well as efficiency loss in practice.