103年度十河局轄區洪水預警及防汛整合作業

因應近年漸趨頻繁的強降雨事件，水利防災相關單位須於汛期期間快速進行研判分析及決策，於防汛作業上，需透過可靠穩定的洪水預警系統協助防汛人員判斷水情，規劃並設計預警系統產出的資訊，如何具體落實於現地的防汛作業，使其與防汛相關程序進行整合。因此，如何透過觀測或預報降雨、水庫放流量等資訊，對流域進行水位及流量之計算，提供相關作業單位執行防洪減災作業，成為一大課題。有鑑於此，河川局等相關單位首要工作即是建置一洪水預警系統。
十河局於民國93年自行研發淡水河即時洪水預報系統(Real time flash flood forecasting model for Dansuie river, REFOR模式)，並於民國 97年至民國102年進行基礎資料更新與模擬功能的擴充，結合資料庫與GIS進行即時預報、事件模擬、決策支援、參數檢定等功能。預報範圍包含淡水河、基隆河、新店溪、景美溪、二重疏洪道及三峽河，並評估納入南勢溪進行河川水位流量預報。降雨預報包含慣性法、中央氣象局QPESUMS、颱風氣候法、颱洪中心系集預報等產品，配合水筒模式計算集水區逕流，河川水理模式計算河川水位與流量，預報系統計算頻率提高至10分鐘，能夠協助防汛人員掌握水情之快速變化，有效爭取預警之時間。展示分別以歷線圖表，以及結合平面地圖展示功能，於颱洪時期可協助預報人員進行研判與決策。
本計畫持續維護擴充REFOR洪水預報系統之功能，工作工作成果如下:
蒐集更新水位流量率定曲線，102年颱洪事件水位、雨量、水庫觀測資料彙整與天文潮預報資料庫更新，並完成資料庫軟體(Microsoft SQL Server 2012版本)升級。完成ETQPF自動化接收、資料解析程式開發，進行單機決策版ETQPF降雨預報資料導入，以25個子集水區平均降雨量為降雨來源，完成單機決策版降雨資料輸入與介面修改。以自動化參數檢定模組及單機決策版參數檢定功能，完成102年蘇力颱風參數檢定，並以今年 7月麥德姆颱風與9月鳳凰颱風完成參數驗證。配合102年新測斷面資料分析，以單機決策版以103年0515豪雨事件，進行延伸基隆河演算範圍與南勢溪水理演算，並配合今年進行麥德姆颱風、鳳凰颱風，完成演算模擬。已完成與台北市政府、新北市政府及基隆市政府聯繫並完成現有水情資料接收。在協助淹水資料調查與彙整成果，提供0521豪雨、0623豪雨、0625豪雨、0629豪雨事件及0630豪雨事件之積淹水調查表與積淹水資訊彙整報告，並完成鳳凰颱風淹水調查報告，同時完成103年度各事件淹水圖層數化。
除了更新維護地圖化展示介面現有圖資，在功能擴充部分，完成納入氣象局雨量站圖資，開發颱風預報路徑的計算與展示介面，與完成任意斷面時序性資料歷線展示與防汛備料存放所屬性資料編輯功能。另外，完成地文資料解析流程建立與淹水模擬程式開發，解析三峽河流域與基隆河汐止段地文資料，並完成三峽河101年蘇拉颱風事件溢堤模擬與驗證。今年汛期提供0618豪雨水情、哈吉貝颱風情勢研判資訊，於麥德姆颱風及鳳凰颱風，配合十河局二級開設進駐，提供水情研判簡報與協助完成颱風報告。觀測與預報多降雨來源之比較與展示工作，完成FEWS_Taiwan平台Thissen內插程式開發，建立多雨量觀測與預報資料計算25集水分區平均降雨量之線上即時作業功能，並於FEWS_Taiwan介面展示。
The Tenth River Management Office (WRA-10) has developed its own flood forecast system, called REFOR, “REal time Flash Flood Forecasting model FOR Dansuie River,” and has been updating and extending the basic data and simulation functions, including combination to database, GIS nowcast, event simulation, decision support and parameter calibration. The forecast range includes Dansuie River, Keelung River, Xindian River, Jingmei River, Erchong flood way and Sanxia River, and Nanshih Creek is added as upstream boundary for river water level and discharge forecast. The rainfall forecast technique includes inertia method, QPESUMS from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), typhoon climatology, ensemble forecast from Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute. These are cooperated with tank model for catchment runoff and hydraulic model for river water level and discharge to reduce the forecast interval to 10 minutes, buying time for personnel to response to quickly changing situation in hazards. The decision making is assisted by hydrograph and flat map display.
In this project, the REFOR system is kept maintained and extended in following content:
Collecting and updating the rating curves, archiving the observations of torrential and typhoon events in 2012, updating the astronomical tide forecast database and upgrading the database operation system to Microsoft SQL Server 2012. Tools are developed for ETQPF data auto-reception and translation, and ETQPF data is imported into the stand-alone decision support REFOR, whom now uses 25-subwatershed rainfall input and has been modified the input and interface. Automatic parameter calibration module and stand-alone REFOR parameter verification function are applied to Soulik(2013), Matmo(2014) and Fung-Wong(2014) typhoon verifications. New cross sections in Keelung River with the new analyzed cross section survey of 2013 and the hydraulic routing in NanShih River are added to the system, new simulations of Matmo and Fung-Wong events are completed. The water information are gathered from Taipei City, New Taipei City and Keelung City government. In regards to the inundation survey, the inundation investigation and/or the aggregate report of 0521, 0623, 0625, 0629 and 0630 torrential rain and Fung-Wong typhoon events are provided, and the flooded area records are digitized.
In additional to the maintenance of the map style demonstrate interface, new functions are also expanded. The rain station data from CWB are imported, and the compute and demonstration of the typhoon track forecast are developed. The hydrograph demonstration function of arbitrary cross section and the editing function of flood preparation material information are developed. And the geomorphology data analysis and flood simulation program is developed, the geomorphology data of Sanshia and Xizhi area are analyzed, and the simulation of Sanshia flood overflow in 2012 Soulik is performed and verified. In this year, the situation assess briefing of 0618 torrential rain and Hagibis typhoon events, and in level 2 openness in WRA-10, personnel are stationed and typhoon report are provided. In terms of the work of multi-source rainfall and observation comparison and demonstration, the Thissen’s interpolation program and on-line in-time operation of 25-subwatershed rainfall computation on FEWS_Taiwan platform is completed and demonstrated on the platform.