The Perils of Proximity ─ China-Japan Security Relations

The rivalry between Japan and China has a long and sometimes brutal history, and the two nations continue to eye each other warily as the balance of power begins to tip toward Beijing. They cooperate and compete at the same time, but if the competition between them deteriorates into military conflict, the entire world has much to lose. The Perils of Proximity evaluates the chances of armed conflict between China and Japan, presenting in stark relief the dangers that it would pose and revealing steps that could head off such a disastrous turn of events.

Richard Bush focuses on the problematic East China Sea region. Although Japan's military capabilities are more considerable than some in the West realize, its defense budget has remained basically flat in recent years. Meanwhile, Chinese military expenditures have grown by double digits annually. Moreover, in modernizing its military, China has focused on power projection—the ability of its air and naval forces to stretch their reach to the east, thus encroaching on Japan.

Tokyo regards the growth of Chinese power and its focus on the East China Sea with deep anxiety. How should Japan respond? As the broader balance of power changes—a strategic challenge for Tokyo—it is incumbent on China, Japan, and the United States to take steps to reduce the odds of clash and conflict in the East China Sea, and veteran Asia analyst Bush presents recommendations to that end. The steps that he suggests will not be easy, and effective political leadership will be absolutely critical. If implemented fully and correctly, however, they have the potential to reduce the perils of proximity in Asia.

Richard C. Bush is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, where he holds the Michael H. Armacost Chair and directs the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies. Before joining Brookings, he served as chairman and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan.