Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters

Although scientists have effectively employed the concepts of probability to address the complex problem of prediction, modern science still falls short in establishing true predictions with meaningful lead times of zero-probability major disasters. The recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and China are tragic reminders of the critical need for improved methods of predicting natural disasters. Drawing on their vast practical experience and theoretical studies, Dr. Yi Lin and Professor Shoucheng OuYang examine some of the problems that exist in the modern system of science to provide the understanding required to improve our ability to forecast and prepare for such events.
Presenting a series of new understandings, theories, and a new system of methodology, Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters simplifies the world-class problem of prediction into a series of tasks that can be learned, mastered, and applied in the analysis and prediction of forthcoming changes in materials or fluids. These internationally respected authors introduce their novel method of digitization for dealing with irregular information, proven effective for predicting transitional changes in events. They also:



Unveil a new methodology for forecasting zero-probability natural disasters


Highlight the reasons for common forecasting failures


Propose a method for resolving the mystery of nonlinearity


Include numerous real-life case studies that illustrate how to properly digitize available information


Supply proven methods for forecasting small-probability natural disasters


This authoritative resource provides a systematic discussion of the non-evolutionality of the modern system of science—analyzing its capabilities and limitations. By touching on the need for change in some of the fundamentals in basic scientific theories and relevant methodologies, this book provides the scientific community with the understanding and methodology required to forecast zero-probability major disasters with greatly improved accuracy.

Yi Lin, Ph.D. holds all his educational degrees in pure mathematics and had a 1-year postdoctoral experience in statistics at Carnegie Mellon University. Currently, he is a guest professor of several major universities in China, including the College of Economics and Management at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics; a professor of mathematics at Slippery Rock University, Pennsylvania; and the president of the International Institute for General Systems Studies, Inc., Pennsylvania.
Dr. Lin serves on the editorial boards of professional journals, including Kybernetes: The International Journal of Systems and Cybernetics, the Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, the International Journal of General Systems, and others. Dr. Lin’s research has been funded by the United Nations, the State of Pennsylvania, the National Science Foundation of China, and the German National Research Center for Information Architecture and Software Technology. He has published well over 200 research papers and 18 books and special topic volumes. Over the years, Dr. Lin’s scientific achievements have been recognized by various professional organizations and academic publishers. In 2001, he was inducted into the Honorary Fellowship of the World Organization of Systems and Cybernetics. His research interests include mathematical and general systems theory and applications, foundations of mathematics, data analysis, predictions, economics, finance, management science, and philosophy of science.
Shoucheng OuYang, Ph.D. pursued his higher education in the department of Meteorology of Nanjing University. Currently, he is a full professor at Chengdu University of Information Technology, a member of the Chinese Association of Geophysics, the International Institute of General Systems, Inc. (United States), and an invited editor of Emerald Journals (United Kingdom), and serves on the editorial or advisory boards of several journals, including Applied Geophysics and Scientific Inquiry.

Through practice, he established the theory of blown-ups and the method of digitization. Due to its real-life applicability, Professor OuYang’s research of the theory and method were funded at various times by many local and national funding agencies and have been employed by some commercial weather forecasting services. He has made over 10 technological innovations, and introduced the theories of second stir and stirring energy. With invitations and relevant funding, Professor OuYang has traveled to Europe, Canada, and the United States to make conference presentations and deliver speeches. As of this writing, he has published more than 10 books. He has published over 100 research articles with more than 40 of these papers being collected by such databases as the Science Citation Index (SCI) and Engineering Index (EI) since 1998. Professor OuYang is currently working on various general problems using the concepts of uneven heat and information of changes.

IntroductionAnalyzing Materials and Events, Analyzing Quantities, and the System of ScienceWhat Quantities Are and Where They Are FromRotational MovementsWhat Time IsIrregular Information and Digital StructuralizationEmbryonic Deficits of Quantitative Analysis SystemsConcepts on the Concept of DeterminacyRandomness and Quantitative ComparabilityEquations of Dynamics and ComplexityAttributes and Problems of Numbers and Their Morphological TransformationsIncompleteness of QuantitiesFolding and Sharp Turning in Mathematical ModelsBlown-Ups of Quadratic Nonlinear Models and Dynamic Spatial TransformationsThe Dynamic Implicit Transformation of the Riemann BallWhole Evolution of Bifurcation Mathematical Models and Nonlinear Elasticity ModelsEight Theorems on Mathematical Properties of Nonlinearity

Achievements and Problems of the Dynamic System of Wave MotionsThe Classical Vibration and Wave Motion SystemMathematical Waves and Related ProblemsLinearization or Weak-Linearization of Nonlinear EquationsNondimensionalization of the Two-DimensionalThe Problem of Integrability of the KdV and Burgers Equations

The Circulation Theorem and Generalization of the Mystery of NonlinearityBjerknes’s Circulation Theorem Generalized Meaning of NonlinearityMystery of NonlinearityEinstein’s General Relativity Theory and the Problem of Gravitational WavesProbabilistic Waves of the Schrodinger Equation and Transmutation of High-Speed FlowsNumerical Experiments on Probabilistic Waves and Torsion of Quantum Effects

Nonlinear Computations and Experiments Mathematical Properties and Numerical Computability of NonlinearityComputational Stability Analysis of Nonconservative and Conservative Schemes of Nonlinear Fluid Equations The Form of Computational Stability of the Conservative SchemePrincipal Problems in the Quantitative Computations of Harmonic Wave Analysis of Spectral ExpansionsLorenz’s Chaos Doctrine and Related Computational Schemes

Evolution Science Specifics of the Concept of Noninertial SystemsWhat Is Time?Stirring Motion and Stirring EnergyPhysical Quantities, Parametric Dimension, and Variable Events
Irregular Information and Regional DigitizationDigitization of Region-Specific Information and Prediction of Disastrous WeathersThe Digital Design and Functions of the V-3θ GraphsStructural Characteristics of Major Disastrous WeathersThe Problem of Mid- and Long-Term ForecastsExamples of Case Studies

Digital Transformation of Automatically Recorded InformationSome BriefingsDigitization of Automatically Recorded Information of Disastrous WeathersExamples of Digitizing Seismological Oscillating Information and Prediction of Earthquakes
AfterwordReferencesIndex