Geopoltics and Energy in Iraq: Where Politics Rules

Geopolitics and Energy in Iraq addresses issues related to the March 7, 2010, Iraqi national election; the selection of a prime minister; and whether the promise of that election will be fulfilled. If a functioning government is not seated, will the country return to the sectarian conflicts that characterized its past? Senior Iraqi officials fear that the U.S. troop drawdown could well result in a power vacuum to be filled by insurgents. Politics have very real implications in Iraq.This report also addresses the issue of the Iraqi oil and gas sector, including security of critical infrastructure, the role that sector has played over the years, its current position, and the prospects for achieving a place in the world oil market commensurate with its reserves in the ground. Iraq continues to be the great unknown in terms of future world oil supply and is likely to remain so for the near term at least, if not longer should political constraints remain. The report concludes with a look at the electricity sector and the general public unhappiness with inadequate supplies.

Robert E. Ebel is senior adviser in the CSIS Energy and National Security Program, where he specializes in world oil and energy issues, with particular emphasis on the Persian Gulf and former Soviet Union. Prior to joining CSIS, he served with the CIA for 11 years and with the Office of Oil and Gas in the Department of the Interior for more than 7 years. Earlier, he was vice president for international affairs at ENSERCH Corporation. Ebel’s many publications include Geopolitics of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Program (CSIS, 2010), Energy and Geopolitics in China (CSIS, 2009), and The Geopolitics of Russian Energy (CSIS, 2009).