Beyond Sand and Oil: The Nuclear Middle East

As the world's most politically unstable region, the Middle East has witnessed over the past 60 years an almost seemingly endless series of wars and crises. Overlaying this political tumult has been the development of nuclear weapons programs in a number of nations, including Israel, Libya, Iraq, and Iran. The combination of intractable political differences combined with the proliferation of nuclear technology and expertise has only added to the region's dangers. The nuclear ambitions of Libya and Iraq have been dealt with but other nuclear weapons challenges have persisted. In the near-term, Iran could cross the nuclear threshold, exacerbating regional tensions with implications extending far beyond the region.

Iran may pose the most obvious threat to the region but it may well not be the last. Recent announcements by various Arab nations call for the development of commercial nuclear power as a way to diversify their energy sources and meet future domestic energy requirements. The same technology that can light thousands of homes also could lead to the development of a new generation of nuclear weapons programs if even a small number of Arab states come to view Iran as a threat requiring a nuclear hedge. These developments stand in stark contrast to President Obama's desire to shape a world free of nuclear weapons.

Beyond Sand and Oil provides a nation-by-nation overview of the evolution of nuclear weapons programs in what is likely the world's most politically unstable region. A detailed assessment of Iran's prospects for becoming a nuclear weapons state--and how Israel, the Arab world, and the international community will respond to that outcome--is also included.

Jack Caravelli is a leading expert on nonproliferation and nuclear terrorism. He served on the White House National Security Council Staff from 1996--2000: his governmental service also included work for the Central Intelligence Agency and Department of Energy. Caravelli is an advisory board member of Oxford Universit's Program for Intelligence and Terrorism. His published works include Praegers Nachural Insecurity Understanding the Threat from Rogue Nations and terrorists.