Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis ─ States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations

Stephen G. Walker, Akan Malici, and Mark Schafer present a definitive, social-psychological approach to integrating theories of foreign policy analysis and international relations—addressing the agent-centered, micro-political study of decisions by leaders and the structure-oriented, macro-political study of state interactions as a complex adaptive system. The links between the internal world of beliefs and the external world of events provide the strategic setting in which states collide and leaders decide.

The first part of this ground-breaking book establishes the theoretical framework of neobehavioral IR, setting the stage for the remainder of the work to apply the framework to pressing issues in world politics. Through these applications students can see how a game-theoretic logic can combine with the operational code research program to innovatively combine levels of analysis. The authors employ binary role theory to demonstrate that relying only on a state-systemic level or an individual-decision making level of analysis leads to an incomplete picture of how leaders steer their ships of state through the hazards of international crises to establish stable relations of cooperation or conflict.

Stephen G. Walker is emeritus professor of political science at Arizona State University.
Akan Malici is assistant professor of political science at Furman University.
Mark Schafer is professor of political science at University of Central Florida.

Part I: Foreign Policy Analysis 1. Foreign Policy Analysis and Behavioral International Relations (Stephen G. Walker) 2. Macropolitics and Foreign Policy Decisions: The Billiard Ball Model of IR (Stephen G. Walker) 3. Micropolitics and Foreign Policy Decisions: The Behavioral Model of IR (Stephen G. Walker) 4. Quantum Politics and Operational Code Analysis: Theories and Methods (Stephen G. Walker) Part II: Foreign Policy Decision Making 5. The United States and Rogue Leaders: Understanding the Conflicts (Akan Malici) 6. Deceptive Bargaining and Nuclear Ambitions: Prospect Theory and North Korea’s Decision to Go Nuclear (Kai He and Huiyun Feng) 7. Small Group Dynamics: The Psychological Characteristics of Leaders and the Quality of Group Decision Making (Mark Schafer, Jonathon Nunley, and Scott Crichlow) 8. Alliances and Their Microfoundations: France and Britain in the 9/11 Era (Akan Malici) Part III: Foreign Policy Learning 9. Learning to Resist or Resisting to Learn? The Operational Codes of Fidel Castro and Kim Il Sung (Akan Malici) 10. Stability and Change in Belief Systems: The Operational Code of George W. Bush from Governor to Second Term President (Jonathan Renshon) 11. Experiential Learning by U.S. Presidents: Domestic, International, and Psychological Influences in the Post-Cold War World (Samuel Robison) 12. Cognitive Responses by U.S. Presidents to Foreign Policy Crises: Belief Changes in Response to Positive and Negative Experiences(B. Gregory Marfleet and Hannah Simpson) Part IV: Foreign Policy Dynamics 13. Dueling with Dictators: Explaining the Strategic Interaction Patterns of U.S. Presidents and Rogue Leaders (Stephen G. Walker and Mark Schafer) 14. Binary Role Theory: Reducing Uncertainty and Managing Complexity in Foreign Policy Analysis (Stephen G. Walker) 15. The Integration of Foreign Policy Analysis and International Relations (Stephen G. Walker) Appendix. Formal Models of Symbolic and Strategic Interaction(Stephen G. Walker)