Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation

In financially constrained health systems across the world, increasing emphasis is being placed on the ability to demonstrate that health care interventions are not only effective, but also cost-effective. Decisions must be made on issues such as medical devices, diagnostic technologies, surgical procedures, and pharmaceuticals. Researchers are therefore required to incorporate all appropriate evidence into the analysis, compare all technologies with the alternative options, and to reflect uncertainty in evidence in the conclusions of the analysis. Decision-analytic modelling is commonly used as the framework for meeting these requirements.

This is a practical guide to the use of modelling techniques, starting with the basics of constructing different forms of model, the population of the model with input parameter estimates, analysis of the results, and progression to the holistic view of models as a tool to inform future research exercises. Key techniques and approaches are discussed, and a comprehensive set of example exercises take the reader through how to conduct decision-analytic modelling. These exercises are supported with templates and solutions made available via the book website (see www.oup.co.uk/isbn/0-19-852662-8).

Andrew Briggs was appointed to the Lindsay Chair in Health Policy and Economic Evaluation in June 2005. Previously he held the position of Reader in Health Economics at the University of Oxford's Health Economic Research Centre (HERC). Karl Claxton holds an adjunct appointment at Harvard as an Assistant Professor of Health and Decision Sciences. He is part of a committee that appraises new and existing health care technologies and issues guidance for the NHS on the use of these technologies. He has also contributed to the Task Group which developed guidance for the appraisal of health technologies for NICE. He is co-editor of the Journal of Health Economics. Mark Sculpher is Director of the Programme on Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment at the University of York. He has previously worked at the Health Economics Research Group at Brunel University, and in the Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics at McMaster University in Canada. He is a member of the NICE Technology Appraisal Committee and he chaired NICE's Task Group on methods guidance for economic evaluation. He is also a member of the Commissioning Board for the NHS Health Technology Assessment programme. He is on the editorial boards of Medical Decision Making, Health Expectations and the Journal of Applied Health Economics and Policy.