Assessing the Threat: The Chinese Military and Taiwan's Security

Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between China and Taiwan —today the Taiwan question is considered a potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict.Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan, Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, and China's security relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific. There is increasing concern that Beijing is steadily shifting the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. Recent advances in Chinese air and naval power, along with changes in PLA doctrine, have the potential to weaken deterrence and destabilize the cross-strait military balance. At this critical juncture, there is not question that this issue requires sustained, detailed analysis and that many measures can and should be taken to reduce the threat of conflict between China, Taiwan, and the United States. Assessing the threat offers such analysis as well as concrete suggestions and crisis management practices for government and military leaders in Washington, D.C., Beijing, and Taipei.

Michael D. Swaine is a senior associate in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's China Program. He has produced several seminal studies, which have expanded American and Chinese governmental officials' understanding of the Chinese military and its role in national security decision making, and Taiwan's national security decision-making process. Dr. Swaine spearheaded and currently co-directs a multi-year collaborative project on key aspects of Sino-American crisis management with a Beijing-based think tank. Dr. Swaine was named the first holder of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy Chair, and also served as research director for the center. His most recent book is Managing Sino-American Crises: Case Studies and Analysis (Carnegie Endowment, 2006). He received a Ph.D. in government from Harvard University.

Andrew N. D. Yang has been on faculty at National Sun Yat-sen University since 1986, and is the Secretary General of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS). He has trained as a security studies specialist particularly in the area of military competition and military balance in East Asia as well as PLA modernization and its impact on East Asia security.

Evan S. Medeiros is currently a senior policy scientist at the RAND Corporation in the Washington, D.C. office. He specializes in research on Asian security affairs, China's foreign and national security policies, U.S.-China relations, and Chinese military affairs. Prior to joining RAND, Dr. Medeiros was a senior research associate for East Asia at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, in Monterey, California. He has recently published a book chapter titled "China's Evolving Nuclear Doctrine," as well as three RAND studies: A New Direction for China's Defense Industry (MG-334-AF); Chasing the Dragon: Assessing China's System of Export Controls on WMD-Related Goods and Technologies (MG-353), and Modernizing China's Military: Opportunities and Constraints (MG-260-AF). He holds a Ph.D. in international relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science, an M.Phil in international relations from the University of Cambridge, and an M.A. in China studies from the University of London.

Oriana Skylar Mastro was a junior fellow with the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace during 2006-2007. She holds a B.A. from Stanford University in East Asian Studies with honors in International Security. Fluent in Mandarin Chinese, she will pursue a Ph.D. in politics at Princeton University beginning fall 2007.