Looking Beyond the Horizon—How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as the fourexamined in Looking Beyond the Horizon, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamentalproblem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture forits livelihood.The risks of climate change to agriculture cannot be eff ectively dealt with—and the opportunities cannot beeff ectively exploited—without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developingthe capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and investing in infrastructure, support services, and on-farmimprovements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis;consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts; and investments inboth human and physical capital. The diverse experiences of Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic ofMacedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, highlighted in this book, show that it is possible to develop a plan tomeet these objectives—one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quickto develop.The approach of this volume is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defi ned byits emphasis on “win-win” or “no regrets” solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for thefarmers of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to futureclimate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limitgreenhouse gas emissions—also known as “climate-smart agriculture.”Looking Beyond the Horizon draws on the experiences of applying this approach to these four nations inEastern Europe and Central Asia with the goal of helping each country mainstream climate changeadaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The book also highlights the projectedimpacts of climate change on agriculture in these countries through forecast variations in temperature andrainfall patterns, which are crucial to farming, and off ers a map for navigating the risks and realizingthe opportunities. Finally, a detailed e xplanation of the approach, as well as lessons learned from itsimplementation, is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries ofEurope, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world.