Demography, Politics, and Partisan Polarization in the United States, 1828-2016

This book examines the geography of partisan polarization, or the Reds and Blues, of the political landscape in the United States. It places the current schism between Democrats and Republicans within a historical context and presents a theoretical framework that offers unique insights into the American electorate. The authors focus on the demographic and political causes of polarization at the local level across space and time. This is accomplished with the aid of a comprehensive dataset that includes the presidential election results for every county in the continental United States, from the advent of Jacksonian democracy in 1828 to the 2016 election. In addition, coverage applies spatial diagnostics, spatial lag models and spatial error models to determine why contemporary and historical elections in the United States have exhibited their familiar, but heretofore unexplained, political geography. Both popular observers and scholars alike have expressed concern that citizens are becoming increasingly polarized and, as a consequence, that democratic governance is beginning to break down. This book argues that once current levels of polarization are placed within a historical context, the future does not look quite so bleak. Overall, readers will discover that partisan division is a dynamic process in large part due to the complex interplay between changing demographics and changing politics.

David Darmofal is an associate professor of political science at the University of South Carolina. His research focuses on spatial analysis, political geography, and political behavior. He is the author of Spatial Analysis for the Social Sciences in Cambridge University Press’s Analytical Methods for Social Research book series. His work has also appeared in a variety of journals including the American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, and Political Geography. He has received best article awards from the Journal of Politics and Political Research Quarterly. His current research examines the spatial dimension in a variety of political behaviors.

Ryan Strickler is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Colorado State University at Pueblo. His research focuses on partisanship and polarization of the U.S. public, as well as the role group identity plays in shaping political reasoning and behavior. He also has interests in public and nonprofit administration, informed by his MPA as well as years working in the nonprofit sector. His published and forthcoming research can be found in Political Research Quarterly, Perspectives on Politics, and Social Science Quarterly. He received his PhD in Political Science from the University of South Carolina in 2017.