★2013年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、《釣愚：操縱與欺騙的經濟學》作者羅伯‧席勒（Robert J. Shiller）重磅推薦★全美各大名校經濟學教授一致讚譽為什麼我們用毫無意義的統計資料來引領思考與行動？為什麼我們相信電腦從不犯錯，不管丟什麼垃圾進去，吐出的數據都是真理？為什麼專家欺騙我們，而我們也常欺騙自己？把統計當工具前，先搞懂統計常識！運用數據做決定前，先學會不被數據欺騙！每天喝兩杯咖啡會增加罹癌風險？在農曆五行中的火年出生的人更容易死於心臟病？卓越的公司有共同的成功特質與模式？自殺傾向和出生月份有關？數據可以幫助我們評估局勢，做出良好選擇；數據也可能誤導我們，做出錯誤決策。大數據時代，問題不再是沒有足夠資訊做判斷，而是如何不被眼前的資料誤導。到底該不該喝咖啡？每天該喝幾杯咖啡？該選擇哪家航空公司？如何投資？運彩怎麼買？當數據會影響你的日常決策，當騙子也習慣用數據說話，你更需要學會辨識隱藏在數字背後的陷阱與詭計。耶魯大學教授運用基本統計學原理，只要會加減乘除，就能揭穿日常生活中的各種數據騙局，並傳授避免落入數字陷阱的簡單準則：◎為什麼我們容易被數據欺騙？人們容易被模式、解釋模式的理論吸引，有意或無意地忽略與之矛盾的數據。◎數據如何欺騙我們？‧忽略干擾因素：章魚保羅預測世界盃賽事結果成功率高達九成，但該結論忽略了章魚偏好橫向條紋圖案的因素，它只是選擇自己喜歡的國旗樣式。‧倖存者偏差：對於敵軍最常攻擊飛機哪些部位的觀察，不會包含那些已經被擊落無法返航的飛機。對航空公司滿意度的調查，不會包含那些只搭過一次就不再來的乘客。‧變形的圖像：圖像可以幫助我們解讀數據，但也可能扭曲或破壞數據。一旦省略數據、顛倒數軸或使用不一致的數軸間隔，將形成截然不同的圖表，產生誤導。◎如何區分真確與胡謅？‧常識判斷：對於看似嚴謹，但不太合常理的說法，應尋求壓倒性的證據支持。‧新數據檢驗：採集新的資料，對既有的解釋進行檢驗。【好評推薦】這是本非常有趣的書，卻揭示了非常嚴重的問題。我們經常會被數據愚弄，是時候拆穿這些詭計了！──諾貝爾獎經濟學得主、《釣愚：操縱與欺騙的經濟學》作者 羅伯‧席勒（Robert J. Shiller）很有趣，很八卦，卻很有見地，本書注定會成為經典。蓋瑞‧史密斯分析無數因相信數據而吃虧的案例，來告訴讀者該如何避免，這比單純講大道理有用的多了。──加州大學洛杉磯分校（UCL
This true legal thriller debunks everything the media and the government told us about the Department of Justice’s destruction and prosecution of the venerable accounting firm Arthur Andersen, Merrill
This is the third, substantially revised edition of this important monograph and graduate text. Each chapter begins with a motivating discussion and ends with a collection of exercises, with hints to
Young dog lovers will enjoy sniffing out the TRUTH about their favorite animals in this innovative Step 3 nonfiction reader.Dogs don't sniff each other's butts as often as we think, right? That's a LIE! The TRUTH is, dogs almost always greet each this way! It gives them lots of information about other dogs. Though this engaging early reader is 100% fun, 25% of it is FALSE! In a unique Q&A format, proficient readers are quizzed about dogs to see if they can separate facts from "lies." The book's mascot--the Truth Sleuth--guides readers through this funny and fact-packed book, which features photos and illustrations of a wide variety of canines.Step 3 Readers feature easy-to-follow plots about popular topics, for children who are ready to read on their own.
Dinosaur fanatics will love hunting down the TRUTH about their favorite prehistoric reptiles in this innovative new Science Reader series.Tyrannosaurus rex's closest living relative is the alligator, right? That's a LIE! The TRUTH is, the massive carnivore was actually more closely related to chickens!! Though this engaging early reader is 100% fun, 25% of it is FALSE! In a unique question-and-answer format, proficient readers are quizzed about dinosaurs to see if they can separate facts from "lies." The book's mascot--the Truth Sleuth--guides readers through this funny and fact-packed Step 3 Reader, which features photos and illustrations of dinosaurs and fossils, with funny, kid-appealing art by Michael Slack.Step 3 Readers feature engaging characters in easy-to-follow plots about popular topics, for children who are ready to read on their own.
