Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better u
How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction market
Why Prediction Markets Are Good for BusinessFrom selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew a
The customer base is an important value driver of software companies and a reliable prediction of its development is fundamental for investment decisions. A particularity in software markets is that a
Financial technology innovation has exploded in the popular consciousness, and promises a radical transformation of the global financial services industry. Over $20 billion is expected to be invested
How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction market
The study of security market imperfections, namely the predictability of equity stock returns, is one of the fundamental research areas in financial modelling. These anomalies, which are not consistent with existing theories, concern the relation between stock returns and variables, such as firm size and earnings-to-price ratios, and seasonal effects, such as January and turn-of-the-month. This book provides the most complete and current account of work in the area. Leading academics and investment researchers have combined to produce a comprehensive coverage of the subject, including both cross-sectional and time series analyses, as well as discussing the measurement of risk and prediction models that have been used by institutional investors. The studies cover many worldwide markets including the US, Japan, Asia, and Europe. The book will be invaluable for courses in financial engineering, investment and portfolio management, and as a reference for investment professionals seeking an
This book deals with the issue of problematic market price prediction in the context of crowd behaviour affected by the psychology of the masses. It highlights the contrast between a phenomenon of mas
Determination and prediction of seafood quality is a hot topic because of the increase in international markets for fresh fish products and the growing aquaculture industry. More fish is being transpo
Nonlinear Dynamics and Economics, first published in 1997, presents developments in nonlinear economic dynamics along with related research from associated fields, including mathematics, statistics, biology, and physics. Specific areas covered include instability in economic theory, nonlinearity in financial markets, tests for nonlinearity and chaos, frequency domain methods, nonlinear business cycles, and nonlinear prediction and forecasting. This volume comprises the tenth in the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics series under the general editorship of William Barnett. This proceedings volume includes revisions of the most important papers presented at a conference held at the European University Institute in Florence on July 6-17, 1992, along with revisions of the related, invited papers presented at the annual meetings of the American Statistical Association held in San Francisco on August 8-12, 1993.
The principal findings of experimental economics are that impersonal exchange in markets converges in repeated interaction to the equilibrium states implied by economic theory, under information conditions far weaker than specified in the theory. In personal, social, and economic exchange, as studied in two-person games, cooperation exceeds the prediction of traditional game theory. This book relates these two findings to field studies and applications and integrates them with the main themes of the Scottish Enlightenment and with the thoughts of F. A. Hayek: through emergent socio-economic institutions and cultural norms, people achieve ends that are unintended and poorly understood. In cultural changes, the role of constructivism, or reason, is to provide variation, and the role of ecological processes is to select the norms and institutions that serve the fitness needs of societies.
The principal findings of experimental economics are that impersonal exchange in markets converges in repeated interaction to the equilibrium states implied by economic theory, under information conditions far weaker than specified in the theory. In personal, social, and economic exchange, as studied in two-person games, cooperation exceeds the prediction of traditional game theory. This book relates these two findings to field studies and applications and integrates them with the main themes of the Scottish Enlightenment and with the thoughts of F. A. Hayek: through emergent socio-economic institutions and cultural norms, people achieve ends that are unintended and poorly understood. In cultural changes, the role of constructivism, or reason, is to provide variation, and the role of ecological processes is to select the norms and institutions that serve the fitness needs of societies.
