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人類預測大歷史:占卜、戰局推演、演算法,人類能正確預測未來嗎?
滿額折
作者:馬丁‧克里費德  出版社:貓頭鷹  出版日:2022/11/05 裝訂:平裝
從神祕儀式到科學計算,明知未來不可測,人類卻從未放棄過! ◎當代首屈一指戰略專家、哈拉瑞受業恩師檢視古今中外人類如何趨吉避凶◎張哲嘉(中央研究院近代史研究所副研究員)專文推薦☆預測未來這件事,打從人類出現就沒停過!2012馬雅大預言、孔明借東風、章魚哥預測球賽、年末的國師星座運勢,以及日常的股票、疫情、戰爭、氣象情報,想了解未來會發生什麼事恐怕已是人類的本能,那麼,從古至今人類究竟如何預測未來?☆從出神到占卜,人如何預言未來?作者馬丁·克里費德是世界知名戰略專家,擅長推估國際戰局的他,在本書中,帶領我們看見人類預測未來的方式所歷經的多次轉變,並檢視這些方式背後的脈絡,以及思考預測未來對於人類命運究竟有何作用。從遠古時代起,便有透過通靈、占卜、作夢等改變意識的方式來預測未來,乩童、薩滿和先知等皆是如此,比如穆罕默德便是透過夢境獲得阿拉的啟示。此外,也有在意識清醒的情況下,透過觀察與解讀其他事物來占卜,比如動物占卜的鳥卦或是從《聖經》等書籍文字中推測世界末日的預言等等。☆從預言到預測除了現今看來不夠理性的預言,為了掌握未來,人類至今發明許多預測未來的方式。為了確認每年歲收發展出「統計學」,為了掌握產業脈動採用「外推法」,為了確保國土安全與擴張,所以用「兵推」來推估戰局,而AI人工智慧的深度學習更是試圖準確推測行動的下一步。☆人類從未放棄預測未來,即使未來永遠都有變數盧梭說:預測未來若非「一切智慧的來源,就是人類一切不幸的來源」。林肯也曾說過:「預測未來的最佳方式就是創造它。」過度耽溺於預知未來,也可能忽略現實層面。而且今日人類發明天氣預報、犯罪預防系統、流行病監控,使用大數據分析,掌握未來的能力看似有所提升,卻也無法預防突如其來的黑天鵝事件。況且若人類有一天真能完全掌握未來,在一個沒有「不確定性」的時代,還有想像的必要,還有懷抱希望與期待的需求嗎?那該是多麼無趣的世界!能夠預先知道未來發生的事有時不見得會比較幸福。不過,預測未來的企圖,卻是推動人類向前邁進的重要動力。也許我們還無法預知下一秒會發生什麼是,但至少可以肯定,「預測未來」對人類依舊至關重要,未來的人也將繼續這樣做。 ◎各方讚譽從預言、占星術到數學模型、演算法,克里費德回顧人類預測未來的歷史。除了深入探索這些預言方式在何時何地,為何及如何被發明,也討論了預言的難度:現代人是否比古代人更能準確
庫存:3
定價:540 元, 優惠價:9 486
The Druidic Art of Divination ― Understanding the Past and Seeing into the Future
滿額折
作者:Jon G. Hughes  出版社:Inner Traditions  出版日:2020/07/09 裝訂:平裝
無庫存,下單後進貨(到貨天數約45-60天)
定價:824 元, 優惠價:79 651
Seeing into the Future:A Short History of Prediction
滿額折
作者:Martin van Creveld  出版社:PBKREAKT  出版日:2020/08/10 裝訂:精裝
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定價:1100 元, 優惠價:95 1045
The Crisis of Journalism Reconsidered ― Democratic Culture, Professional Codes, Digital Future
滿額折
作者:Jeffrey C. Alexander  出版社:Cambridge Univ Pr  出版日:2016/06/24 裝訂:平裝
This collection of original essays brings a dramatically different perspective to bear on the contemporary 'crisis of journalism'. Rather than seeing technological and economic change as the primary causes of current anxieties, The Crisis of Journalism Reconsidered draws attention to the role played by the cultural commitments of journalism itself. Linking these professional ethics to the democratic aspirations of the broader societies in which journalists ply their craft, it examines how the new technologies are being shaped to sustain value commitments rather than undermining them. Recent technological change and the economic upheaval it has produced are coded by social meanings. It is this cultural framework that actually transforms these 'objective' changes into a crisis. The book argues that cultural codes not only trigger sharp anxiety about technological and economic changes, but provide pathways to control them, so that the democratic practices of independent journalism can be
無庫存,下單後進貨(到貨天數約45-60天)
定價:1624 元, 優惠價:9 1462
作者:Jeffrey C. Alexander  出版社:Cambridge Univ Pr  出版日:2016/06/24 裝訂:精裝
This collection of original essays brings a dramatically different perspective to bear on the contemporary 'crisis of journalism'. Rather than seeing technological and economic change as the primary causes of current anxieties, The Crisis of Journalism Reconsidered draws attention to the role played by the cultural commitments of journalism itself. Linking these professional ethics to the democratic aspirations of the broader societies in which journalists ply their craft, it examines how the new technologies are being shaped to sustain value commitments rather than undermining them. Recent technological change and the economic upheaval it has produced are coded by social meanings. It is this cultural framework that actually transforms these 'objective' changes into a crisis. The book argues that cultural codes not only trigger sharp anxiety about technological and economic changes, but provide pathways to control them, so that the democratic practices of independent journalism can be
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The Witch's Heart
滿額折
作者:Genevieve Gornichec  出版社:Ace Books  出版日:2021/11/30 裝訂:平裝
When a banished witch falls in love with the legendary trickster Loki, she risks the wrath of the gods in this moving, subversive national bestselling debut novel that reimagines Norse mythology. Angrboda's story begins where most witches' tales end: with a burning. A punishment from Odin for refusing to provide him with knowledge of the future, the fire leaves Angrboda injured and powerless, and she flees into the farthest reaches of a remote forest. There she is found by a man who reveals himself to be Loki, and her initial distrust of him transforms into a deep and abiding love. Their union produces three unusual children, each with a secret destiny, who Angrboda is keen to raise at the edge of the world, safely hidden from Odin's all-seeing eye. But as Angrboda slowly recovers her prophetic powers, she learns that her blissful life--and possibly all of existence--is in danger. With help from the fierce huntress Skadi, with whom she shares a growing bond, Angrboda must choose whethe
無庫存,下單後進貨(到貨天數約30-45天)
定價:646 元, 優惠價:79 510
作者:Genevieve Gornichec  出版社:ACE  出版日:2021/02/09 裝訂:精裝
When a banished witch falls in love with the legendary trickster Loki, she risks the wrath of the gods in this moving, subversive debut novel that reimagines Norse mythology. Angrboda's story begins where most witches' tales end: with a burning. A punishment from Odin for refusing to provide him with knowledge of the future, the fire leaves Angrboda injured and powerless, and she flees into the farthest reaches of a remote forest. There she is found by a man who reveals himself to be Loki, and her initial distrust of him transforms into a deep and abiding love. Their union produces three unusual children, each with a secret destiny, who Angrboda is keen to raise at the edge of the world, safely hidden from Odin's all-seeing eye. But as Angrboda slowly recovers her prophetic powers, she learns that her blissful life--and possibly all of existence--is in danger. With help from the fierce huntress Skadi, with whom she shares a growing bond, Angrboda must choose whether she'll accept the f
絕版無法訂購
The History Written on the Classical Greek Body
90折
作者:Robin Osborne  出版社:Cambridge Univ Pr  出版日:2011/08/15 裝訂:平裝
This book challenges historians to come to terms with the distortions that they systematically introduce into their work by their reliance on what has been written on paper without looking at what was and was not written on the body. This book is concerned with the ways in which texts relating to classical Greece, and in particular to classical Athens, classified people and with the extent to which those classifications could be seen by the eye. It compares the qualities distinguished in texts to those distinguished in sculpture and painted pottery, and emphasises the frequent invisibility of the categories upon which historians have laid most stress – the citizen, the free person, the foreigner, even the god. The frequent impossibility of seeing who belonged to which category has major political, social and theological implications which are explored here, as well as potentially revolutionary implications for all future historical writing.
無庫存,下單後進貨(到貨天數約45-60天)
定價:1624 元, 優惠價:9 1462
The History Written on the Classical Greek Body
滿額折
作者:Robin Osborne  出版社:Cambridge Univ Pr  出版日:2011/08/15 裝訂:精裝
This book challenges historians to come to terms with the distortions that they systematically introduce into their work by their reliance on what has been written on paper without looking at what was and was not written on the body. This book is concerned with the ways in which texts relating to classical Greece, and in particular to classical Athens, classified people and with the extent to which those classifications could be seen by the eye. It compares the qualities distinguished in texts to those distinguished in sculpture and painted pottery, and emphasises the frequent invisibility of the categories upon which historians have laid most stress – the citizen, the free person, the foreigner, even the god. The frequent impossibility of seeing who belonged to which category has major political, social and theological implications which are explored here, as well as potentially revolutionary implications for all future historical writing.
無庫存,下單後進貨(到貨天數約45-60天)
定價:3659 元, 優惠價:9 3293
Superforecasting ─ The Art and Science of Prediction
滿額折
作者:Philip E. Tetlock; Dan Gardner  出版社:Broadway Books  出版日:2016/09/13 裝訂:平裝
A New York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book of 2015"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tourn
無庫存,下單後進貨(到貨天數約30-45天)
定價:684 元, 優惠價:79 540
作者:Philip E. Tetlock; Dan Gardner  出版社:Random House Inc  出版日:2015/09/29 裝訂:精裝
From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictionsEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future,
絕版無法訂購
Strange Pilgrims ─ Twelve Stories
滿額折
作者:Gabriel Garcia Marquez; Edith Grossman  出版社:Vintage Books  出版日:2006/11/14 裝訂:平裝
In Barcelona, an aging Brazilian prostitute trains her dog to weep at the grave she has chosen for herself. In Vienna, a woman parlays her gift for seeing the future into a fortunetelling position wit
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定價:646 元, 優惠價:79 510
40: A Novel
滿額折
作者:Alan Heathcock  出版社:McD  出版日:2022/08/02 裝訂:精裝
From the award-winning author Alan Heathcock comes an American myth of the future: a vision of civil war, spectacle, and disaster of biblical proportions.In a future America ravaged by natural disaster, pandemic, and political unrest, a fundamentalist faction emerges. As the Novae Terrae gain power, enticing civilians with bread and circuses, a civil war breaks out between its members and the US government.Mazzy Goodwin, a young soldier, only wants to find her little sister, Ava Lynn. One day, she wakes in a bomb crater to find wings emerged from her back. Has she died? Been gifted wings by God? Undergone a military experiment?The world sees a miracle. Mazzy is coaxed into seeing it as an opportunity: to become the angel-like figurehead of the revolution, in return for being reunited with her sister. Her journey leads her to New Los Angeles, where the Novae have set up the headquarters for their propaganda machine?right in the ruins of Hollywood. Aided by friends old and new, she must
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定價:1026 元, 優惠價:79 811

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