Africa's Turn?

By the end of the twentieth century, sub-Saharan Africa had experienced twenty-fiveyears of economic and political disaster. While "economic miracles" in China and Indiaraised hundreds of millions from extreme poverty, Africa seemed to have been overtaken by violentconflict and mass destitution, and ranked lowest in the world in just about every economic andsocial indicator. Working in Busia, a small Kenyan border town, economist Edward Miguel began tonotice something different starting in 1997: modest but steady economic progress, with newconstruction projects, flower markets, shops, and ubiquitous cell phones. In Africa's Turn? Migueltracks a decade of comparably hopeful economic trends throughout sub-Saharan Africa and suggeststhat we may be seeing a turnaround. He bases his hopes on a range of recent changes: democracy isfinally taking root in many countries; China's successes have fueled large-scale investment inAfrica; and rising commodity prices have helped as well. Miguel warns, though, that the growth isfragile. Violence and climate change could derail it quickly, and he argues for specificinternational assistance when drought and civil strife loom. Responding to Miguel, nine expertsgauge his optimism. Some question the progress of democracy in Africa or are more skeptical aboutChina's constructive impact, while others think that Miguel has underestimated the threatsrepresented by climate change and population growth. But most agree that something new is happening,and that policy innovations in health, education, agriculture, and government accountability are thekey to Africa's future.Contributors Olu Ajakaiye, Ken Banks, Robert Bates, Paul Collier, RachelGlennerster, Rosamond Naylor, Smita Singh, David N. Weil, and Jeremy M. Weinstein

Edward Miguel, coauthor with Raymond Fisman of Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence, and the Poverty of Nations, is Associate Professor of Economics and Director of the Center of Evalulations for Global Action at the University of California, Berkeley.