The Black Swan ─ The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan
所謂黑天鵝，是指看似極不可能發生的事件，它具三大特性：不可預測性；衝擊力強大；以及，一旦發生之後，我們會編造出某種解釋，使它看起來不如實際上那麼隨機，而且更易於預測。Google的驚人成就就是一個黑天鵝事件；九一一也是。作者認為黑天鵝潛藏在幾乎每一件事的背後——從宗教之興起，到我們個人生活中的大小事件。

為什麼要等到事情發生之後，我們才認得出黑天鵝現象呢？部分的答案是，在應該注意普遍現象時，人們長久以來卻習慣注意特定事件。我們習慣注意已經知道的事情，卻一而再再而三忽略我們所不知道的事情。因此，我們無法真正地評估機會；我們很容易將事情簡化、予以敘述、分類；而且我們不夠開放，沒能珍視那些能夠想像「不可能事物」的人。

多年來，作者一直在研究我們是怎樣欺騙自己，以為自己知道的比實際上知道的還多。我們總是只看到無足輕重的事情，而大的事件卻繼續在你我的驚嘆聲中出現，並形塑著這個世界。本書試圖解釋我們對於「我們所不知道的事物」所知道的一切。作者提出簡單得令人吃驚的技巧，協助讀者面對黑天鵝現象，並從這些意外的大事件獲益。

優雅、驚豔，且應用廣泛，《黑天鵝效應》猛力衝擊了文化業、社交圈和知識界，成為琅琅上口、被廣為引用的概念和詞彙。作者在擴充新版中新增五萬餘字，提出違反直覺卻實用的作法，能提高社會和我們自己對黑天鵝事件的免疫力，得以在極端世界中生存。《黑天鵝效應》已改變了許多人的世界觀，生活在黑天鵝事件層出不窮的世界，每個人都該讀這本書。

本書中文版《黑天鵝效應》由大塊文化出版

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.



*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flaneur, meditating in cafes across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.