Streetlights and Shadows
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Streetlights and Shadows
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Streetlights and Shadows

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:NT$ 1024 元
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商品簡介

In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyzeevery option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Mostof us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines--gatheras much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. Butin practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindlyfollowing procedures. In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom abouthow to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows thatthey are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well wheneverything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity.Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete--butthat doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led tothe downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.) Klein offers more realistic ideas about how tomake decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples--ranging from airline pilots andweather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master andCommander novels--to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn't. Theyused their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make betterdecisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stopexpecting the data to tell us everything.

作者簡介

Gary Klein is a Senior Scientist at Applied Research Associates. He is the author of Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (1999) and the coauthor of Working Minds: A Practitioner's Guide to Cognitive Task Analysis (2006), both published by the MIT Press.

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優惠價:79 809
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(到貨天數約30-45天)

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