Economic integration between Hong Kong and Mainland China is a topic of great interest among both policy circles and the academia. This book is a collection of relevant research papers of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in the past two years, which study the economic integration process between Hong Kong and the Mainland from different perspectives, including linkages through both the trade and financial market channels. This volume sheds light on the important policy issues facing both Hong Kong and the Mainland, including how resilient the Hong Kong economy is against external shocks, how large portfolio capital outflows from China will be once its capital account is liberalized, and in what ways fund flows between Hong Kong and the Mainland affect Hong Kong’s monetary and financial conditions. With 11 essays, this monograph can be divided into 2 parts. Part I studies the “real” linkages between Hong Kong and the Mainland, while Part II focuses on the financial linkages. A detailed
京都議定書已於2005年2月正式生效,我國雖非附件一國家,在第一階段尚無立即減量之壓力,但我國溫室氣體排放總量佔全球總排放量的1%,名列全球第廿二位,很可能被列入下一波要求減量的目標;再者,溫室氣體雖包括六種氣體,但是二氧化碳卻佔台灣溫室氣體排放總量七成五以上,這也是二氧化碳被列入減量重點之原因。就消極面而言,若不採行二氧化碳減量措施,我國恐將遭受貿易抵制,損及國家利益;另以積極面而言,我國身為地球村之一員,自應善盡世界公民之責任,共同為維護地球之永續發展而努力。因此,評估京都議定書對電力系統之可能衝擊與因應對策,實為當務之急。本文即利用Regional and Real-time Pricing System(RRPS)來模擬各種溫室氣體減量政策,包括碳稅及需求面管理對台電機組調度、電價及二氧化碳排放之影響。依據本文模擬結果,徵收40美元/噸CO2之碳稅無法降低燃煤機組之發電量,僅能在尖峰時段降低小部分燃油機組之發電,由燃氣機組取代,但會使電價由每度1.86元新台幣上漲至2.56元新台幣,漲幅約達38%;若將稅率提高為60美元/噸CO2,則燃氣取代燃油之效果更加明顯,但電價也將上漲為2.91元新台幣/度。在離峰時段則因為以核能與燃煤發電為主力,因此課徵之碳稅對機組調度與二氧化碳排放毫無影響,但因離峰時段節點電價低,相對碳稅將佔了電價中較高比例,因此課徵40美元/噸CO2之碳稅將使平均節點價格由每度0.46元新台幣暴增至1.53元新台幣。此外,當系統發電容量不足時,若能透過需求面管理的手段來抑制尖峰負載,是確保系統可靠度的一項良方,同時也能藉由減少發電能源使用而降低二氧化碳之排放。但是,若因實施負載管理措施而將尖峰用電移轉至離峰,則反而可能導致總二氧化碳排放增加的後果。